JP Morgan sees no recession in the Philippines in ‘09

JP Morgan sees no recession here in ‘09

November 21, 2008 03:37:00
Philippine Daily Inquirer

Investment bank JP Morgan said the Philippines would manage to survive an anticipated global recession next year and post a relatively decent growth of 4.0 percent.
“The Philippines is in a relatively strong position to weather the global downturn with the economy driven by private consumption and services, which are less vulnerable to external shocks,” JP Morgan said in a report titled “ASEAN Year Ahead 2009: Philippines Well-Positioned to Withstand the Downturn.”
It said there would be no recession in the Philippines next year despite a global downturn, as there were still bright spots for the economy, including the business process outsourcing industry, which will remain profitable.
It forecast Philippine growth this year at 4.6 percent.
The government’s estimates are 4.1-4.8 percent this year and 3.7-4.7 percent in 2009.
The government says the Philippines will likely have a slowdown next year but a recession is farfetched. It says that although the export sector is expected to suffer from weakening global demand, the Philippines will benefit from other factors, like easing food and fuel prices and a 20-percent increase in the national budget for infrastructure projects.
JP Morgan also said foreign exchange remittances of overseas Filipinos—one of the growth drivers for the Philippines—were likely to remain strong, contrary to speculations that these would suffer from job cuts in Western economies.
“We expect remittances to remain resilient due to the growing proportion of permanent overseas workers and deployed white collar workers,” the investment bank said in its report.
It said easing inflation, which could hit single-digit levels by the first quarter of 2009, would allow for a looser monetary policy, which in turn would support growth. Michelle V. Remo; edited by INQUIRER.net

(thanks again to my multiply buddy Rye the Man, xxxriainxxx for the forward)